NFL 2104 Week 16

COLTS +3.5 at dallas (2 nuts)
sea at CARDINALS +9 (3 nuts)
BRONCOS -3 at cincinnati (3 nuts)
played the under in nyj for 3 nuts. vikes and g-men for 1 nut each.

NFL 2014 Week 14

indianapolis at BROWNS +3.5 (3 nuts)
houston at JAGUARS +7 (3 nuts)
new england at CHARGERS +4 (3 nuts)
also steelers, bucs, skins.

NFL 2014 Week 13

phi at COWBOYS -3 (3 nuts)
no at STEELERS -3 (2 nuts)
PATRIOTS +3 at gb (4 nuts)

NFL 2014 Week 12

BUCCANEERS +6 at chi (3 nuts)
jac at COLTS -13.5 (3 nuts)
DOLPHINS +7 at den (3 nuts)
and browns.
small jets, chargers, cowboys.

NFL 2014 Week 11

sea at CHIEFS +1 (4 nuts)
actually played this first half, teased and parlayed full game.
phi at PACKERS -5 (4 nuts)
oak at CHARGERS -10 (2 nuts)
putting some on gb and sd 1h too.

NFL 2014 Week 10

DOLPHINS +3 at det (3 nuts)
- fins 16 lions 20, -3 nuts.
this went from moneyline dog winner to losing the cover on that TD in the final seconds. bleh.
chi at PACKERS -7 (3 nuts)
- bears 14 packers 55, +3 nuts.
pit at JETS +4.5 (2 nuts)
- steelers 13 jets 20, +2 nuts.

known associate Week 10: 2-1, +2 nuts.
season to date: 13-15-2, no nuts.

NFL 2014 Week 9

was at VIKINGS PK (2 nuts)
- skins 26 vikes 29, +2 nuts.
phi at TEXANS +1.5 (2 nuts)
- eagles 31 texans 21, -2 nuts.
den at PATRIOTS +3 (4 nuts)
- broncos 21 pats 43, +4 nuts.
shoulda bet this even bigger. peyton stays pussy in foxboro.

known associate Week 9: 2-1, +4 nuts.
season to date: 11-14-2, -2 nuts

NFL 2014 Week 8

CHARGERS +9.5 at den (3 nuts)
the flowers and verrett injuries are concerning but this is just too much value to pass up. the broncos obviously put a lot on the sunday night game and might be in for a let down. if not, the chargers are still a legit superbowl contender and seemed to have looked past the chiefs on sunday with eyes on this showdown.
- chargers 21 broncos 35, -3 nuts.
covering vs peyton AND the refs/nfl golden boy bias was too much to ask of SD.

2 more picks to follow. 99% sure the saints will be one of them.

chi at ne OVER 52 (2 nuts)
- bears 23 pats 51, +2 nuts.
gb at SAINTS -1 (3 nuts)
- packers 23 saints 44, +3 nuts.

known associate Week 8: 2-1, +2 nuts.
season to date: 9-13-2, -6 nuts

NFL 2014 Week 7

car at gb OVER 49 (3 nuts)
- panthers 17 packers 38, +3 nuts.

SAINTS +1.5 at det (3 nuts)
- saints 23 lions 24, +3 nuts.

49ERS +7 at den (4 nuts)
- niners 17 broncos 42, -4 nuts.

known associate Week 7: 2-1, +2 nuts.
season to date: 7-12-2, -8 nuts

NFL 2014 Week 6

STEELERS +3 at cle (3 nuts)
a.brown eats up browns haden and steelers dont let the browns come back this time.
- pit 10 cle 31, -3 nuts.
gb at DOLPHINS +3 (3 nuts)
banking on the inside intel from philbin + packers coming off blowout + afternoon miami heat helping the fins.
- gb 27 mia 24, 0 nuts.
backdoor push, an aaron rodgers specialty.
det at VIKINGS PK (3 nuts)
calvin out, teddy in.
- det 17 min 3, -3 nuts.
teddy overmatched.
also
bengals. aj's out but burfict's back. bounce back from embarrassment in foxboro. split the bet between full game and half.
- half hit, at least.
jets. holding my nose and hoping the jets come through in their superbowl.
- looked good until geno's pick 6.
giants. mckayla maroney face at the eagles.
- this loss was never in doubt.

known associate Week 6: 0-2-1, -6 nuts.
season to date: 5-11-2, -10 nuts

NFL 2014 Week 5

tb at SAINTS -10 (3 nuts)
i like first half even better.
- tb 31 no 37, -3 nuts.
weak ass brees fucked up the 1h bet with a late INT that led to a tb td.
RAVENS +3 at ind (2 nuts)
colts looking ahead to thursday night.
- bal 13 colts 20, -2 nuts.
i need to quit betting ravens games, but i won't.
cin at PATRIOTS +3 (3 nuts)
brady-chick given a field goal at home? auto-play. plus i have vegas on my side.
- cin 17 ne 43, +3 nuts.
shoulda woulda coulda went bigger.
also falcons and chargers (2 nut level plays). then rams, niners, broncos.

known associate Week 5: 1-2, -2 nuts.
season to date: 5-9-1, -4 nuts

NFL 2014 Week 4

PACKERS -1.5 at chi (2 nuts)
- gb 38 chi 17, +2 nuts.
PANTHERS +3.5 at bal (3 nuts)
- car 10 bal 38, -3 nuts.
atl at VIKINGS +4.5 (4 nuts)
- atl 28 min 41, +4 nuts.
also bucs, over in dallas, niners, titans.

known associate Week 4: 2-1, +3 nuts.
season to date: 4-7-1, -2 nuts

NFL 2014 Week 3

known associate:
dal at RAMS +2 (2 nuts)
- cowboys 34 rams 31, -2 nuts.
PACKERS +1 at det (2 nuts)
- packers 7 lions 19, -2 nuts.
STEELERS +3.5 at car (3 nuts)
- steelers 37 panthers 19, +3 nuts.
also saints (by the half), browns, bears, overs in philly and carolina.

known associate Week 3: 1-2, -1 nut.
season to date: 2-6-1, -5 nuts

NFL 2014 Week 2

known associate:
mia at BILLS -1 (3 nuts)
i was more impressed with the bills win on the road (vs the bears) than the dolphins win at home (vs the pats). tannehill should be improved this year but he's 1-3 vs the bills with a 48% completion rate. plus, this is buffalo's home opener and the fans are gonna be hyped off the news that their beloved bills aren't going anywhere.
- fins 10 bills 29, +3 nuts.
i didn't even realize the bills were honoring ralph wilson and bringing out jim kelly. or maybe they were honoring him too in some way. whichever. the fans were definitely pumped.
chi at 49ERS -7 (3 nuts)
i'll be with the squares on the one despite the fact teams historically fair poorly in their stadium openers. hopefully i'll have some line value by gametime once the public realizes marshall and jeffery won't play. circadian rhythms will also be of help, especially in the second half.
- bears 28 niners 20, -3 nuts.
bleh. misread the marshall and jeffery situations and circadian rhythms were of no help. stupid santa clara niners fucked up my teasers.
phi at COLTS -3 (1 nut)
andrew luck is 10-0 ATS following a loss (6-0 as a fave) and 13-4 ATS at home. plus, this will be the first mnf home game in the luck era and the colts will be desperately avoiding an 0-2 start.
pick change: i'm taking this down to 1 nut as i'm actually laying more on the over.
- eagles 30 colts 27, -1 nut.
i'm glad i didn't lay any real scrill on a side as vegas seemed to have a hand in this one. personal foul penalties should be reviewable. that wasn't a horse-collar tackle. yay, over!
also jaguars, under in cleveland, chargers, and packers. i like the packers as much as my top 3 but so far only have them on a bunch of teasers and smaller parlays.
- i thought the jags were gonna provide good value early this season but i was wrong. they're unbettable right now but will probably cover in week 3 now that i've sworn them off. under in cleveland hit, not by much. chargers benefitted from the heat as they ran the no huddle against the non-defensive subbing seawhores and won straight up. the packers turned over the first snap of the game, went down 21-3 but still almost covered (i bought a point and pushed). i like them as dogs this week in detroit.

known associate Week 2: 1-2, -1 nut.
season to date: 1-4-1, -4 nuts

NFL 2014 Week 1

known associate:
not sure if my cohorts will be posting this year but i will (for now)...
min at RAMS -2.5 (1 nut)
just betting value. this line moved 2.5 points after the bradford injury. i don't think sam bradford is worth 2.5 points. also, 75% of bets are on the vikes and the only thing worse than a public fave is a public dog.
- vikings 34 rams 6
still don't think bradford is worthy of the line move but hill's in-game injury didn't help matters. -1 nut.
cin at RAVENS -1 (2 nuts)
week 1 road dogs that made the playoffs in the previous season are just 2-21-1 ats since '89. (i.e. it's a fade of the weaker playoff teams.) plus, i think the ravens bounce back a bit this year.
- bengals 23 ravens 16
i get bad flacco about 75% of the time i pick the ravens. wish i had more fantasy stock in giovani bernard this season. -2 nuts.
ind at BRONCOS -7 (4 nuts)
the system fits this as well, and i like it even more in this matchup. colts defense is still doodoo and the broncos will want to avenge their first loss of 2013 and also prove that they're better than their showing on super bowl sunday.
- colts 24 broncos 31
what the shit second half was that? backdoor push, no homo nor nuts.
smaller on texans, dolphins, raiders, saints.
- texans were easy. the dolphins handled biz on a hot and humid miami afternoon like the usually do. raiders came through with a backdoor cover. saints got matty iced.

known associate Week 1: 0-2-1, -3 nuts

NFL Week 9

known associate's week 9 thoughts from the pacific northwest:
the bills were bout to be one of my bigger plays of the year but thad lewis's gimpness is looking to make it a no play. kc's house of cards may stand yet another week. slim pickins otherwise in this heavy bye week but i do like the jets to bounce back (or at least keep it close) and the texans to keep their season alive. also expecting plenty points in dc and gb. fwiw, the fins were in this group until the jonathan martin situation scared me off of laying nuts. picks in the AM after i see the injury reports..
posted these at 9:55am but billy rubin must've overwritten...
no at NYJ +6.5 (3 nuts)
- saints 20 jets 26, +3 nuts.
sd at was OVER 49.5 (3 nuts)
- chargers 24 skins 30 (OT), +3 nuts.
ATL +9 at car (1 nut)
- falcons 10 panthers 34, -1 nut.
also hou+1 and buf +5.5
lvh supercontest picks: nyj +6(w), hou+2.5(l), atl+7.5(l), buf+3(l), sd-1(l)
- lvh picks: 1-4

Week 9: (2-1, +5 nuts)
Season: (17-9-1. 30 nuts)
LVH picks: 19-15-1

     Indented Servant
TEN -3 @ STL (3 nuts)
 Jeff Fisher's mustache.
BAL @ CLE +1.5 (3 nuts)
If I were Cleveland, my abandonment issues with the Ravens would make me not let them into Cleveland again, because after the game, they will just leave again. I'd cry and write in my journal and watch Up and cry some more when (SPOILER ALERT) the UP man's wife dies.  Then I'd read Old Yeller and cry some more when (SPOLIER ALERT) Old Yeller gets capped. I sure do spend a lot of time crying.
IND -2 @ HOU (3 nuts)
The Colt's defense should hold whatever offense the Texans can cobble together at bay.  Andrew Luck will show off for the Sunday Night cameras.

Week 9: (3-0, 9 nuts)
Season: (16-11, 17 nuts)

billy rubin:
CAR -9 vs ATL (3 nuts): putting your faith in cam newton and ron rivera probably isn't the wisest strategy, but atlanta is awful and i have carolina winning in a blowout. hopefully it doesn't end up staying close late, allowing rivera and newton to screw this one up.

SD +1.5 @ WAS (3 nuts): again, i'm probably crazy counting on rivers and the chargers traveling east and getting the job done, but washington's d is pretty terrible. the over is probably the safer bet here, but i really like the chargers today.

SEA -15.5 vs TB (3 nuts): this is a big number, but of all the awful teams i'm going against today tamps is the awfullest. seattle's o-line is banged up, so there's definitely a chink in the armor for tampa to attack, but i can't see tampa's offense moving the ball at all when vjax is their only real weapon. at some point, and it could be earlier than later, the tampa d will cave and this one will be a joke. 

Week 9: 1-2, -3 nuts
Season: 12-15, 0 nuts

NFL Week 17 Picks

NYT

NYJ @ BUF -3.5 (2 nuts)
CLE +10 @ PIT (3 nuts)
GB @ MIN +3 (3 nuts)

known associate's wtf happened last night picks:
seriously, i feel like i did some hard drugs. 99% sure i didnt.
DAL +3 at was (3 nuts)
gb at MIN +3 (3 nuts)
gb at min OVER 45.5 (2 nuts)
locked in the over in new orleans last night. would've been a pick. also playin pats 1h.
lean cards too.

billy rubin:
dal at WAS -3 (5 nuts)
dal at was OVER 48.5 (5 nuts)

NFL Week 16 Picks

known associate:
locking two plays in...
no at dal OVER 52 (3 nuts)
the cowboys offense has been better of late and getting demarco back to top form should only help. more importantly, the saints rank 30th in red zone conversion defense (% of TDs allowed) and they're at their worst on the road; allowing a touchdown 72% of the time. brees should get his.
was at phi OVER 45 (3 nuts)
both teams are pretty shitty defensively in the red zone; ranking 26th or worse. reid and foles have nothing to lose and could be motivated to put on a show in their last home game of 2012. weather shouldn't be a factor.
the giants are probably going to be my third play. also considering browns, the unders in gb and nyj, and the over in seattle.
NYG -2 at bal (1 nut)

billy rubin:
PIT -3 vs CIN (3 nuts)
DAL -3 vs NO (3 nuts)
CHI -7 @ AZ (3 nuts)

NYT

IND -5.5 @ KC (3 nuts)
NO +2.5 @ DAL (3 nuts)
STL +3 @ TB (3 nuts)


records through week 15:
known associate: 17-26-2, -21 nuts (week 15: 0-3, -7 nuts)
nyt: 23-21-1, +9 nuts

NFL Week 15 Picks

NYT

CAR +3 @SD (4 nuts)
TB @ NO -3.5 (2 nuts)
CHI @ GB over 43.5 (2 nuts)

billy rubin:

TB +3.5 vs. NO (2 nuts): yikes, going against NYT again. oh well, josh freeman is a 6'6" black man and drew brees is a 6'0" (listed) white man. advantage (in the pants), freeman.
DEN @ BAL o48 (3 nuts): manning should be good for the lion's share of this and hopefully cam cameron was actually holding back the ravens offense.
IND +10.5 @ HOU (2 nuts): indy isn't nearly as good a team as their record would indicate, and houston should be out to prove something, but i just can't see this being a two score game. over is probably the smarter play for this game, but i just wrote two whole sentences so fuck it.

known associate:
NYG +1 at atl (3 nuts)
- giants 0 falcons 34. -3 nuts
everyone's favorite gay qb and his boytoys played their only complete game of the season but i'm still not buying the falcons as a top superbowl contender. "statement game" my butthole. more like an outlier game.
JAC +7.5 at mia (2 nuts)
- jaguars 3 dolphins 24. -2 nuts
not that i deserved to win this play but this score is a bit misleading. the jags hung with the fins (leading in yardage for most of the game) but turned it over on downs in the redzone three times! also, the final td came very late in game. lol @me for layin nuts on shit teams.
PIT +1 at dal (2 nuts)
- steelers 24 cowboys 27 (ot). -2 nuts
reverse cowboys were 0-6 ats at jerryland this season. i shoulda layed off this game tho. steelers d is aging quick.
also played broncos for 2 nuts.
lol @jim caldwell. i'm far from a cam cameron apologist but it looks like the ravens made a bad situation worse. check caldwell's resume. pretty sure dude has never called plays, ever. he did get outcoached by sean payton in the superbowl tho.
bucs, panthers, bills, niners, texans 1h for lesser nuts.
panthers were the play, bills and bucs are some assclowns on defense. texans really didn't deserve to cover the 1h or the game. go niners tho!
week 15: 0-3, -7 nuts. 


records through week 14:
known associate: 17-23-2, -14 nuts (week 14 1-2 -2 nuts)
21 -20-1, +5 nuts

NFL Week 14 Picks

NYT

BAL +2.5 @ WAS (2 nuts)
TEN @ IND -5 (3 nuts)
DAL @ CIN -3.5 (3 nuts)


known associate:
atl at CAR +3.5 (3 nuts) straight up win
NO +4.5 at nyg (3 nuts) loss
DET +6.5 at gb (2 nuts) half point loss
titans nearly made the cut.
titans either covered or pushed depending on your line.
smaller plays on pats, browns, skins, jags, eagles.
pats killed. browns covered. skins covered and rg3 threw an incompletion that was more exciting to watch than 99% of alex smith's completions. jags miss cecil shorts, didn't cover. eagles won straight up as dogs.
week 14: 1-2, -2 nuts.

billy rubin:

TEN +5.5 @ IND (2 nuts): i hate to go against not your type, who clearly has the football gods' ears this season, but this weekend is full of crappy games/lines and this is one of the few that stands out to me as a play.
CIN - 3.5 vs DAL (4 nuts): now i'm a little worried about the fact that NYT and i agree on this. hopefully andy dalton employs reverse racism and treats the cowboys like red-headed stepchildren. or just reverse cowboys someone and gets some ball-to-ball action. matt ryan would probably like that.
PHI +7.5 @ TB (2 nuts): i'm not too sure about riding the nick foles train for two weeks in a row, especially in a contest where he likely has the smaller penis between the starting qbs, but all the eagles have to do is lose by only a td. it's not like this is the tampa defense of yore anyway.

records through week 13:
known associate: 16-21-2, -12 nuts
nyt : 21-17-1, +13 nuts