Sunday, November 29, 2009

week 12

Titans -3 vs. Cardinals
(ten 20 - az 17, push)
Vikings -10 vs. Bears
(min 36 - chi 10, W)
Patriots +1 at Saints
(ne 17 - no 38, L)

(week 1-1-1, season 20-15-1)


Billy Rubin:

I was too busy yesterday to post any picks, so I'm making picks for MNF and this week's Thursday night game, which isn't part of Week 12, but will have to do for our purposes.

Patriots +1 @ Saints
Patriots @ Saints under 57
(Patriots 17, Saints 38 L & W)
Bills +1 vs. Jets
(Bills 13, Jets 19 L)

(Week 1-2, Season 18-18)


Sunday, November 22, 2009

Semana Once

Looks like we're just barely gonna get these in:

Billy Rubin:

Lions -3.5 vs. Browns
The Lions are the best of the shittiest teams, at least today. They actually have some talent on their roster. Cleveland has some dudes with first and last names on its roster.
(Lions 38, Browns 37 L)

Saints -10.5 @ Buccaneers
Once again, you can't go wrong going against the Bucs...unless you did in Week 9.
(Saints 38, Buccaneers 7 W)

Bengals -9.5 @ Raiders
I can beat the Raiders by 10.
(Bengals 17, Raiders 20 L)

(Week 1-2, Season 17-16)


known associate:

Cardinals/Rams over 46.5
(az 21 - stl 13, L)
Eagles -3.5 @ Bears
(phi 24 - chi 20, W)
Patriots -10.5 vs. Jets

(ne 31 - nyj 14, W)

(week 2-1, season 19-14)

Sunday, November 15, 2009

week 10

c'mon now Pretty Boy, don't duck The Destroyer.
as for NFL...

Known Associate:
Eagles -1 at Chargers
(phi 23 - sd 31, L)
Cowboys -3 at Packers
(dal 7 - gb 17, L)
Patriots-Colts over 48
(ne 34 - ind 35, W)

(week 1-2, season 17-13)

Getting the internet in the Dominican is tougher than you'd think. Even though I'm four hours ahead of Known Associate and Not Your Type, I'm just getting around to posting my picks now. I also don't want to risk running up my iphone bill, so I'm using the Caesers/Harrahs/Rio odds from That said, here are my picks:

Patriots @ Colts over 48
(Patriots 34, Colts 35 W)

Ravens -11 @ Browns
Ravens @ Browns under 39.5
(Ravens 16, Browns 0 W & W)

(Week 3-0, Season 16-14)


Sunday, November 8, 2009

I Like the Way They Dribble Up and Down the Court

As our handful of readers already know (if there are even that many), the contributors to this blog are some major fantasy sports nerds. I may be the nerdiest of them all. Every year I try to make my own statistical projections for baseball, football and basketball. Usually, work and nobody else in my life sharing my nerdiness works against me and I rarely complete my projections to my own satisfaction. This year, I budgeted my time a little better, or worse depending on your point of view, and I am pretty pleased with both my football and basketball projections. 

It's a little too late to post my football projections, and, while anybody who may stumble upon this probably has already had their fantasy basketball drafts, and definitely shouldn't rely on my projections if they haven't, the NBA season is young enough that I feel it is still somewhat relevant to post my projections. I won't go through the silly bullshit I do to convince myself that I'm arriving at objective conclusions, I'll just post the top 15 players at each position, based on position eligibility from Yahoo! Sports fantasy basketball, and then in mid-April we can all look back and laugh at how miserable my projections actually are. 

As some players qualify at multiple positions, I've expanded the rankings to top 20 for some positions to show as many unique players as possible. The players are sorted within a given position based on a weighting system that considers what I think someone typically would be looking for from that position in a standard nine-category head-to-head fantasy basketball league. So, blocks and rebounds aren't weighted too heavily for point guards, but assists and steals are. Likewise, rebounds and blocks are weighted heavily for power forward and centers, but assists and steals aren't. The rankings also give strong consideration to projected games played.

Here are my projections for point guard:

Nothing too exciting there. Some people may disagree with the specific rankings, since Steve Nash is so low, but he doesn't contribute much in the counting stats except for assists and three pointers. O.J. Mayo is probably higher than most people would think, and certainly higher than most people who know me would expect, but he really only hurts you in FG%, although it should be noted that he isn't a great source of assists at all. 

The following table shows my projections for the top 15 shooting guards:

Again, this is pretty much what you would expect at the top. I suppose some might disagree with Pierce being ahead of Granger, which is due to Pierce's better assist numbers. Also, Dwayne Wade is ranked lower than most would consider reasonable, but that's because of his mediocre FT% and the fact that he takes a bunch of free throws, and also because his rebounds and blocks aren't weighted that heavily in this group ranking.

Below are my projections for small forward:

And here are power forward projections:

Here are the final position rankings for centers:

Finally, here my projections for the top 10 rookies based on my rankings:

Note that Blake Griffin has the best per game averages, but is 7th because I projected only 54 games played for him. Based on the very early returns, it looks like I totally missed the boat on James Johnson.

There you go. Tune back in in April to see how bad these projections really are.

Image courtesy of

Saturday, November 7, 2009


Welcome to Week 9, it's so fi-yi-yine. Here are our picks:

Billy Rubin:

Dolphins +10.5 @ Patriots
I have no explanation for picking this, just going on my gut. In other words, I should lose this one.
(Dolphins 10, Patriots 27 W)

Packers -9.5 @ Buccaneers
If there's one thing I've learned this season, it's that you can always feel good betting against the Bucs.
(Packers 28, Buccaneers 38 L)

Texans @ Colts over 49.5
I'm a fool for these high overs.
(Texans 17, Colts 20 L)

(Week 1-2, Season 13-14)


known associate:

Steelers -1 @ Broncos
the Broncos' reality check continues.
(pit 28 - den 10, W)
Packers -9.5 @ Buccaneers
The Bucs don't have the pass rush to expose the weak Packers o-line.
(gb 28 - tb 38, L)
Patriots -10.5 vs. Dolphins
Tom Brady is too handsome.
(ne 27 - mia 17, L)

(week 1-2, season 16-11)

Sunday, November 1, 2009

I Want to Pick More Sleep

Happy All Saints Day! Here are our picks for Week 8:

Billy Rubin

Lions -3.5 vs. Rams
Possible Super Bowl match-up. Roger Goodell is nutting in his pants over this premium game.
(Lion 10, Rams 17 L)

49ers +13 @ Colts
Because I hope it happens, and that's always a good impetus for betting.
(49ers 14, Colts 18 W)

Jaguars @ Titans over 44.5
The pretty terrible offenses will take advantage of the pretty terrible defenses.
(Jaguars 13, Titans 30 L)

(Week 1-2, Season 12-12)


known associate:

Dolphins +3.5 @ Jets
The Jets couldn't figure out the wildcat last time around.
(mia 30, nyj 25 W)

Jaguars +3 @ Titans
I'm betting against Vince Young.
(ten 30, jac 13 L)

Ravens -4.5 vs. Broncos
Good spot for the Ravens.
(bal 30, den 7 W)

(week 2-1, season 15-9)