Monday, December 27, 2010

NFL Week 16 Late Entry

The red-headed step-child of this blog picks:

NO @ ATL -2

Under 49.5 NO @ ATL

Over 37 MIN @ PHI

Sunday, December 26, 2010

NFL Week 16

It's the second to last week of the 2010-11 NFL season, so it's time to go on a roll and make up for some recent, sub-par weeks. Without further ado, here are our picks:

billy rubin: I'm in Paris and I'm about to go look at some Frenchies walk around being all French and stuff, so I'm a little out of the NFL loop, but here are the games I like the most this week:

BAL -3.5 vs. CLE: The Browns are pretty much a one trick pony, and while they're not an elite defense anymore, the Ravens are good against the run and against RBs in the passing game. They should be able to contain Hillis, if not shut him down completely. Baltimore's offense is far from the juggernaut people expected, and Cleveland has proven somewhat effective at preventing opposing WRs from having big games, so this will likely be the Ray Rice show, hopefully resulting in a win of four points or more.

HOU -2.5 @ DEN: I'm not 100% sure anybody in this game will care about the outcome, and it's tough to go against Jesus' own flesh and blood (Tim Tebow) the day after his pagan birthday celebration, but I just can't see Houston winning by less than four in this game, unless there's standing water, because Tim Tebow can walk on water.

SD -8 @ CIN: There's a good chance that the Bengals literally do not show up for this game. I'd certainly want to stay home and play with my Christmas gifts and eat leftovers if I were them. If they do decide to show up, they will be able to enjoy Rivers and company running up and down the field scoring points at will, while Carson Palmer and his noodle arm will enjoy being shut down on offense.

For what it's worth, I also really like the overs in New England @ Buffalo (44.5) and Jacksonville @ Washington (46), and I'd love to play the Niners +2.5 @ St. Louis, but there's this big dumb hall of famer that pretty much erases any confidence I have in that line.

known associate:
useful stat that some handicapping geek dug out: from 1981-2000, home dogs of 2+ points covered 52% of the time during weeks 1-14. not bad but not enough to turn a profit when factoring in the vig (54% is the magic # for cappers). BUT during the last 3 weeks of the season, that number goes up to 61%. do what you will with that but either way, late regular season betting in the NFL is crazy time so i'd advise tempering the amount of your wagers. while some teams are fighting for the playoffs or byes, others are looking towards the offseason or resting starters.

BAL -3.5 @ cle
- did i say some shit about home dogs of 2+ points? i forget. also, peyton hillis (aka the browns offense) is out.
det @ mia UNDER 41.5
- putting my faith in the dolphin defense. and offense.
DEN +2.5 vs hou
- the broncos' coach kinda reminds me of the (not so) big (but very) dumb dude on the niners sideline but the texans look like they've flat out just quit playing.

i also like the new york football giants to bounce back in green bay but that home dog stat kept it from being one of my top 3 plays. although, it may be my biggest money play today if i win a few of the 10am games or have a few more brews during that time. that nyg pass rush should prove to be too much for a certain recently concussed quarterback and the packer o-line.

Friday, December 24, 2010

College Bowl Plays

i have time to do some college football capping during this holiday break so i might as well try and win some cash. tail if you wish. i actually started last night with the poinsetta bowl and i'll include it for tracking, since i won and all. i'm guessing i'll have a play for about 3/4 of the bowl games. billy rubin and not your type may or may not post plays of their own.

the mythical national championship game (also known as the BCS National Championship) isn't until january 10th. at this point, i can't decide between tits or ass.

in the meantime, known associate will be playing these:

poinsettia bowl: san diego state vs navy
- SAN DIEGO STATE -3 for 1 unit
result: win. sdsu 35 navy 14

hawaii bowl: hawaii vs tulsa
- OVER 73.5 for 1 unit
result: win. tulsa 62 hawaii 35
-parlay HAWAII -9/OVER 73 for 0.5 unit to win 1 unit
result: loss.

little caeser’s bowl: FIU vs toledo
- UNDER 59 for 1 unit
both teams rely on their running game and there's a freshman qb on one side. the clock will be ticking.
result: loss. FIU 34 toledo 32
- UNDER 29.5 first half for 2 units
toledo hasnt been to a bowl in 5 years and this is the first ever bowl for FIU so it may take a while for each team to settle down.
result: win. toledo 21 FIU 7

champs sports bowl: nc state vs west virginia
- OVER 49 for 1 unit

insight bowl: missouri vs iowa
- MISSOURI -3 for 2 units
- tease nc state-west virginia OVER 42.5/MISSOURI +4 for 1 unit
result: loss, loss and loss.
damn it.
missouri was a bad beat but no excuses. a loss is a loss is a loss.

not that i like nc state to win or anything.

military bowl: east carolina vs maryland
- EAST CAROLINA +7.5 for 1 unit
result: loss. maryland 51 ecu 20.
early turnovers and penalties didnt help ecu. i'm pretty good fade material right now so...

alamo bowl: oklahoma st vs arizona
- OKLAHOMA ST -4 for 3 units
result: win. ok st 36 zona 10.
#81 has a little bit of last years #1 in him. no homo.
- parlay OK ST -4/OVER 68 for 0.5 unit to win 1.2 units.
result: loss. the pac-10 is weaksauce (with the exceptions of oregon and stanford).

oh and also, "also" is a funny looking word.

armed forces bowl: army vs smu
- SMU -7 for 1 unit
redemption from "the death penalty" continues in the mustangs home stadium.
result: loss. army 16 smu 14.
the mustangs outgained army by 200 yards but 3 first half turnovers (one returned for a td) fucked it all up.

pinstripe bowl: kansas st vs syracuse
- UNDER 24 1st half for 1 unit
result: loss. wildcats 14 orange 14
- SYRACUSE pk 2nd half for 0.5 unit
result: win. orange 22 wildcats 20

music city bowl: tennessee vs north carolina
- UNDER 24.5 1st half for 1 unit
result: loss. tarheels 17 vols 14.
done in by a couple late TDs.

holiday bowl: washington vs nebraska
- UW +14 for 0.5 unit
- parlay UW +14/UNDER 27 1st half for 0.5 unit to win 1 unit
result: win and win. huskies 19 huskers 7. (huskies 10 huskers 7 at the half.)
if any team drafts jake locker over cam newton, it better not be the 49ers.

meineke bowl: clemson vs south florida
- parlay USF +7/UNDER 20.5 1st half for 0.5 unit to win 1 unit
result: loss. hit on USF, lost on the under, again.

brett favre once pulled an oden on one of these breezys.

liberty bowl: central florida vs georgia
- UCF +7 for 2 units
result: win. ucf 10 georgia 6
despite the latest greatest.

chick-fil-a bowl: florida state vs south carolina
- OVER 54 for 0.5 unit
result: loss. fsu 26 sc 17
- FSU +3 for 1 unit
result: win.

party time.

citrus bowl: michigan st vs alabama
- OVER 51.5 for 1 unit
result: win. bama 49 msu 7

gator bowl: michigan vs mississippi st.
- MISS ST -3 for 1 unit
result: win. bulldogs 52 wolverines 14

rose bowl: tcu vs wisconsin
- TCU -2.5 for 2 units
result: loss. horned frogs 21 badgers 19

fiesta bowl: connecticut vs oklahoma
- parlay TCU -2.5/OKLAHOMA -13.5 for 0.5 unit to win 1 unit
- parlay OU -13.5/UNDER 28 1st half for 0.5 unit to win 1 unit
- tease OU -8.5/UNDER 60 for 1 unit
result: loss, loss and loss. sooners 48 huskies 20

back at it on monday with the orange bowl.

orange bowl: stanford vs virginia tech
- STANFORD -3 for 1 unit
i'm usually partial to quarterblacks but the hokies thrive on forced turnovers and i just don't see the harbaugh/luck led cardinal committing many.
- STAN -0.5 1st quarter for 1.5 units
season averages for 1st quarter: cardinal 12, hokies 6.3. plus, a couple hokies will be benched.
- STAN -2.5 2nd half for 1 unit

orange bowl results and college bowl plays continued in part two.

2010-11 bowl season record:
straight bets: 10-9. 2.5 units
parlays/teasers: 1-7. -3.5 units
total -1 unit

Sunday, December 19, 2010

NFL Week 15

Here are our picks for Week 15 in the NFL.


billy rubin: I really wish I could go back in time and pick the Chargers on Thursday night - that was a money pick for sure. Alas, the flux capacitor is on the fritz, so I'll just make three picks for today's games.

N.O. +2 @ BAL: The Ravens are more bark than bite on defense this year and their offense has been far from consistent. The Saints shouldn't be hampered in the passing game, although I would expect a slightly depressed rushing attack. If the Ravens are going to make this one interesting it'll be because of Ray Rice and Todd Heap.

HOU +1.5 @ TEN: The Titans can't stop anyone. Houston put up a lot of yards against a much better, but still not elite, Ravens D last week, so this should be a good day for the Houston offense. On the other side of the ball, Houston's D isn't any good either and the Titans may finally be figuring out how to move the ball. Nonetheless, I like Houston in this game.

MIA -5.5 vs. BUF: The Dolphins offense is a mess, no doubt about that, but the Bills defense is pretty anemic against the run. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams should be able to handle this one on their own, and Miami's D is playing pretty well lately, so they should be able to keep the Bills in check.


known associate:
NO +2 @bal- loss
AZ +2.5 @car- loss
PHI +3 @nyg- win

week 1-2
overall 25-20-2


NE -14 @ GB
NE @ GB over 43.5
CHI -9 @ MIN

Any readers want to leave us any comments?

Saturday, December 11, 2010

NFL Week 14

known associate:
MIA +5 @ nyj
win: dolphins 10 jets 6. ugly game. thank god for gambling.
den @ az UNDER 43.5
loss: cards 43 broncos 13. bullcaca 28 points in the last 6 minutes!
PHI -3.5 @ dal
loss: eagles 30 cowboys 27. always buy the hook.

week 1-2. season 24-18-2.


not your type:

ATL -7 @ CAR

OAK @ JAX -4

MIA @ NYJ -5.5


billy rubin:

ATL -7.5 @ CAR
win: falcons 31, panthers 10. matt ryan's handsomeness reigns supreme.
TB -1 @ WAS
tie: bucs 17, skins 16. there are ties in football?
PHI -3.5 @ DAL
loss: eagles 30, dallas 27. mike vick can beat dogs and cowboys, but he can't beat cowboys by enough. he should call stephen spielberg and get some aliens to help him out, although he will likely be foiled by james bond and han solo.

week: 1-1-1. season: 25-16-3

Sunday, December 5, 2010

NFL Week 13

NFL Week 13

CLE @ MIA -3

CHI @ DET +3.5

BUF +6 @ MIN


billy rubin:

NYG -7.5 vs. WAS
- win: NYG 31, WAS 7
DAL +5 @ IND
- win: DAL 38, IND 35
StL -3.5 @ AZ
- win: StL 19, AZ 6

week 3-0, overall 24-15-2
(10-3-1 after Week 4; 1-2 in Weeks 5, 7 & 11; 0-3 in Week 6; 1-1-1 in Week 8; 3-0 in Week 9; 2-1 in Weeks 10 & 12)

known assoiciate:

CHI -5.5 @ det
-loss: bears 24 lions 20
STL -3.5 @ az
-win: rams 19 cards 6
GB -9 vs sf
-win: pack 34 niners 16

week 2-1, overall 23-16-2
(2-1 each of the past 5 weeks. 1-2 for weeks 5 to 7. week 1 to 4 results previously posted.)