billy rubin: I'm in Paris and I'm about to go look at some Frenchies walk around being all French and stuff, so I'm a little out of the NFL loop, but here are the games I like the most this week:
BAL -3.5 vs. CLE: The Browns are pretty much a one trick pony, and while they're not an elite defense anymore, the Ravens are good against the run and against RBs in the passing game. They should be able to contain Hillis, if not shut him down completely. Baltimore's offense is far from the juggernaut people expected, and Cleveland has proven somewhat effective at preventing opposing WRs from having big games, so this will likely be the Ray Rice show, hopefully resulting in a win of four points or more.
HOU -2.5 @ DEN: I'm not 100% sure anybody in this game will care about the outcome, and it's tough to go against Jesus' own flesh and blood (Tim Tebow) the day after his pagan birthday celebration, but I just can't see Houston winning by less than four in this game, unless there's standing water, because Tim Tebow can walk on water.
SD -8 @ CIN: There's a good chance that the Bengals literally do not show up for this game. I'd certainly want to stay home and play with my Christmas gifts and eat leftovers if I were them. If they do decide to show up, they will be able to enjoy Rivers and company running up and down the field scoring points at will, while Carson Palmer and his noodle arm will enjoy being shut down on offense.
For what it's worth, I also really like the overs in New England @ Buffalo (44.5) and Jacksonville @ Washington (46), and I'd love to play the Niners +2.5 @ St. Louis, but there's this big dumb hall of famer that pretty much erases any confidence I have in that line.
known associate:
useful stat that some handicapping geek dug out: from 1981-2000, home dogs of 2+ points covered 52% of the time during weeks 1-14. not bad but not enough to turn a profit when factoring in the vig (54% is the magic # for cappers). BUT during the last 3 weeks of the season, that number goes up to 61%. do what you will with that but either way, late regular season betting in the NFL is crazy time so i'd advise tempering the amount of your wagers. while some teams are fighting for the playoffs or byes, others are looking towards the offseason or resting starters.
BAL -3.5 @ cle
- did i say some shit about home dogs of 2+ points? i forget. also, peyton hillis (aka the browns offense) is out.
det @ mia UNDER 41.5
- putting my faith in the dolphin defense. and offense.
DEN +2.5 vs hou
- the broncos' coach kinda reminds me of the (not so) big (but very) dumb dude on the niners sideline but the texans look like they've flat out just quit playing.
i also like the new york football giants to bounce back in green bay but that home dog stat kept it from being one of my top 3 plays. although, it may be my biggest money play today if i win a few of the 10am games or have a few more brews during that time. that nyg pass rush should prove to be too much for a certain recently concussed quarterback and the packer o-line.
known associate:
useful stat that some handicapping geek dug out: from 1981-2000, home dogs of 2+ points covered 52% of the time during weeks 1-14. not bad but not enough to turn a profit when factoring in the vig (54% is the magic # for cappers). BUT during the last 3 weeks of the season, that number goes up to 61%. do what you will with that but either way, late regular season betting in the NFL is crazy time so i'd advise tempering the amount of your wagers. while some teams are fighting for the playoffs or byes, others are looking towards the offseason or resting starters.
BAL -3.5 @ cle
- did i say some shit about home dogs of 2+ points? i forget. also, peyton hillis (aka the browns offense) is out.
det @ mia UNDER 41.5
- putting my faith in the dolphin defense. and offense.
DEN +2.5 vs hou
- the broncos' coach kinda reminds me of the (not so) big (but very) dumb dude on the niners sideline but the texans look like they've flat out just quit playing.
i also like the new york football giants to bounce back in green bay but that home dog stat kept it from being one of my top 3 plays. although, it may be my biggest money play today if i win a few of the 10am games or have a few more brews during that time. that nyg pass rush should prove to be too much for a certain recently concussed quarterback and the packer o-line.
No comments:
Post a Comment