Sunday, September 14, 2014

NFL 2014 Week 2

known associate:
mia at BILLS -1 (3 nuts)
i was more impressed with the bills win on the road (vs the bears) than the dolphins win at home (vs the pats). tannehill should be improved this year but he's 1-3 vs the bills with a 48% completion rate. plus, this is buffalo's home opener and the fans are gonna be hyped off the news that their beloved bills aren't going anywhere.
- fins 10 bills 29, +3 nuts.
i didn't even realize the bills were honoring ralph wilson and bringing out jim kelly. or maybe they were honoring him too in some way. whichever. the fans were definitely pumped.
chi at 49ERS -7 (3 nuts)
i'll be with the squares on the one despite the fact teams historically fair poorly in their stadium openers. hopefully i'll have some line value by gametime once the public realizes marshall and jeffery won't play. circadian rhythms will also be of help, especially in the second half.
- bears 28 niners 20, -3 nuts.
bleh. misread the marshall and jeffery situations and circadian rhythms were of no help. stupid santa clara niners fucked up my teasers.
phi at COLTS -3 (1 nut)
andrew luck is 10-0 ATS following a loss (6-0 as a fave) and 13-4 ATS at home. plus, this will be the first mnf home game in the luck era and the colts will be desperately avoiding an 0-2 start.
pick change: i'm taking this down to 1 nut as i'm actually laying more on the over.
- eagles 30 colts 27, -1 nut.
i'm glad i didn't lay any real scrill on a side as vegas seemed to have a hand in this one. personal foul penalties should be reviewable. that wasn't a horse-collar tackle. yay, over!
also jaguars, under in cleveland, chargers, and packers. i like the packers as much as my top 3 but so far only have them on a bunch of teasers and smaller parlays.
- i thought the jags were gonna provide good value early this season but i was wrong. they're unbettable right now but will probably cover in week 3 now that i've sworn them off. under in cleveland hit, not by much. chargers benefitted from the heat as they ran the no huddle against the non-defensive subbing seawhores and won straight up. the packers turned over the first snap of the game, went down 21-3 but still almost covered (i bought a point and pushed). i like them as dogs this week in detroit.

known associate Week 2: 1-2, -1 nut.
season to date: 1-4-1, -4 nuts

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